Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE Tracker (2024)

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This storm is unnamed. If the information appears to be out of date, its name may have changed, so visit the main page for the latest information.

PTC-FIVE Current Status

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...

Current Wind Speed 30 knots / 35 MPH

Max Predicted Wind Speed 95 knots / 110 MPH at 2024-08-17T12:00:00.000Z

Current Watches/Warnings / Radar / Satellite

PTC-FIVE Land Hazards

• RAINFALL - Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
• WIND - Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area for the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
• STORM SURGE - A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
• SURF - Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

PTC-FIVE Tracker

PTC-FIVE Satellite Loop

PTC-FIVE Alternate Tracking Map

PTC-FIVE Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models for PTC-FIVE can be found here:

PTC-FIVE spaghetti models page »

PTC-FIVE Watches and Warnings

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE Tropical Cyclone Update

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE Public Advisory

000WTNT35 KNHC 121746TCPAT5 BULLETINPotential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 4ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024200 PM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM......TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.5N 56.4WABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF ANTIGUAABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla* Guadeloupe* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy* Sint Maarten* British Virgin Islands* U.S. Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico* Vieques* Culebra A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor theprogress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates, including possible inland watches and warnings, pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your areaoutside of the United States, please monitor products issued byyour national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude15.5 North, longitude 56.4 West. The system is moving toward thewest near 26 mph (43 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motionwith some decrease in forward speed is expected during the nextcouple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expectedto move across portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight orTuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and PuertoRico Tuesday evening. Then, the disturbance is forecast to move awayfrom Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as itnears the Leeward Islands.* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...near 100 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found inthe Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMOheader WTNT45 KNHC and on the web athurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to producetotal rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of theLeeward and Virgin Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches ofrainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five isexpected to produce the following rain accumulations through Fridaymorning:Windward Islands...1 to 4 inchesEastern Hispaniola...2 to 4 inches For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated withPotential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National WeatherService Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available athurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areafor the Leeward Islands beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night or early Wednesday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Ricofrom San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra andVieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St.John, and St. Croix. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feetabove normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near thecoast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affectportions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells arelikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Public Advisory not available for this storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone PTC-FIVE Forecast Discussion

836 WTNT45 KNHC 121456TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 4NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0520241100 AM AST Mon Aug 12 2024 Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm indicate a low-level center could be attempting to form closer to some increased convective activity within the northern semicircle of the disturbance. While the disturbance appears to be gradually becoming better organized in satellite imagery, the lack of a well-defined center means it will remain a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the flight-level winds and some distant scatterometer data over the eastern part of the circulation, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon and help us assess any changes to the low-level wind field. Overall, the disturbance has moved a little faster to the west than previous estimates, and the initial motion remains quickly westward (280/23 kt). A westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days while the system moves around the southwestern extent of the subtropical ridge. This will bring the center over portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight into Tuesday, and then near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday night and Wednesday. By midweek, the system will reach a weakness in the mid-level ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough moving across the western Atlantic. This should induce a northwestward to northward motion during the latter half of the forecast period. The track guidance envelope has shifted to the left of the previous track, likely a product of the faster forward speed and the weaker initial state of the system. Only small adjustments were made to the near-term NHC track forecast, with a slightly larger westward adjustment at days 3-5.Until the disturbance becomes better organized, the large radius of maximum wind and some northeasterly shear should only allow for modest strengthening during the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast shows it becoming a tropical storm in 24 h and continuing to slowly strengthen while it passes over the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Once the system reaches the western Atlantic, the intensity guidance favors more significant strengthening, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane in 3 days and continue intensifying thereafter. No major changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast this cycle, which remains close to the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm as it reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for most of these islands, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin late tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Tuesday night or early Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0000Z 15.5N 58.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/1200Z 16.3N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 18.8N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 20.5N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 22.7N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH120H 17/1200Z 31.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$Forecaster Reinhart

PTC-FIVE storm path from NHC

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